Epidemiology of breast cancer in Kazakhstan: the analysis of morbidity, mortality, and disease staging in 2015-2024

Abstract

Relevance: Breast cancer (BC) ranks first in terms of prevalence among all malignant neoplasms in women in the Republic of Kazakhstan. Over the period 2015-2024, there has been a steady increase in the incidence, with the disease increasingly being detected in older women. Despite ongoing screening programs, breast cancer remains a significant cause of cancer mortality. For the first time, a comprehensive 10-year analysis of national breast cancer data was conducted with an assessment of the dynamics of morbidity, mortality, stage, and five-year survival.
The study aimed to analyze changes in the incidence, mortality, survival, and stage of BC in women in the RK from 2015 to 2024 to assess the effectiveness of measures for early detection and treatment of the disease.
Methods: The BC incidence and mortality analysis for 2015-2024 was based on official statistical reports (forms No. 7 and No. 090/U) and data from the national cancer registry. Demographic indicators were obtained from open sources of the Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Statistical processing was performed using SPSS software (version 23.0) with descriptive statistical methods, including calculating the means, confidence intervals, and trend rates.
Results: During the study period, the incidence rate of BC increased from 45.7 to 47.6 per 100,000 women, while mortality decreased from 14.2 to 7.8. Five-year survival rose by 81%, from 16,740 to 30,267 patients. The proportion of early-stage diagnoses (I-II) increased from 81.5% to 88.7%, and stage III cases nearly halved. The highest incidence was recorded in the 65-69 age group.
A link has been established between screening coverage and mortality reduction. The results obtained refine and expand the previously
presented regional data, providing a basis for improving preventive programs and enhancing the effectiveness of cancer care.
Conclusion: Kazakhstan demonstrates a steady rise in BC incidence alongside a reduction in mortality and improvements in early diagnosis. These trends affirm the effectiveness of screening programs and oncologic care, although the stable rate of stage IV diagnoses highlights the need to eliminate barriers to timely medical consultation.